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Ahrefs proposes an AI search ROI formula with two revenue columns
Writing for Ahrefs, Louise Linehan proposes reporting AI search ROI with two revenue columns, tracked and self-reported, after showing the same quarterly spend yields 33 percent or 100 percent ROI depending on which one is used.
Image: Ahrefs
Why it mattersA marketing team being asked whether AI search is worth the money now has a defendable template that acknowledges attribution gaps instead of hiding them, so the number that reaches the executive is reproducible on the next quarter's data.
A $27,000 quarterly spend on AI search looks like a 33 percent return on one spreadsheet and a 100 percent return on another, and neither is wrong. That is the worked example Louise Linehan uses in a new Ahrefs piece on measuring AI search ROI, and the point is less about the arithmetic than about what the second column is doing.
Linehan is a content marketer at Ahrefs. The post is reviewed by Ryan Law, head of content, and is a sister piece to Linehan's companion article on measuring AI search visibility. Both make the case that one headline figure is not enough to describe how AI search is affecting a business.
The two revenue columns, and why both matter
The formula Linehan uses is standard: ROI equals revenue minus cost, divided by cost, times 100. The novelty is in how she fills in the revenue cell. One column counts only tracked conversions, the sources an analytics tool can see directly. The other column adds self-reported revenue, from a customer survey that asks how the buyer found the company.
In Linehan's example, a quarterly spend of $27,000 produces 33 percent ROI on the tracked column and 100 percent ROI on the self-reported column. Both numbers come from the same quarter. The gap between them is the attribution gap. Linehan's recommendation is to show both columns in every report, name the method under each, and treat the second column as a floor on the real figure rather than a replacement for it.
The industry numbers Ahrefs cites to frame the problem
Linehan opens with figures from named studies. Forrester reports that 94 percent of business buyers now use AI search when they buy, which Ahrefs cites as "ahead of vendor websites, product experts, and sales reps." NielsenIQ data cited in the post puts the consumer figure at 42 percent for product research. Search interest in AI attribution keywords, measured in Ahrefs' own data, is up 212 percent over 18 months.
The companion piece quotes Ahrefs' own self-reported attribution. More than one in five people who sign up for Ahrefs say they found the company through ChatGPT or Claude. In a signup form, that figure comes to 21.7 percent across free and paid tools, which puts AI ahead of YouTube and second only to Google as a reported source. Most of that influence shows up as direct or organic traffic in analytics, which is why the tracked-only column undersells it.
The reporting move for a marketer being asked for a number
The practical advice is a template rather than a formula. Report both revenue columns every quarter. Name the method under each. Include an ad-equivalent value figure alongside the ROI percentage; Ahrefs cites $7,300 to $13,100 per month across 1,786 tracked prompts for its own visibility. Give the executive the measurement limitations in plain words. The number is not perfect, Linehan writes, but it is reproducible on next quarter's data, which is the thing a CFO actually wants.
Source
Primary: AI Search ROI Is Messy. Here's How to Measure It Anyway, Louise Linehan, Ahrefs. Companion: How to Measure AI Search Visibility When Attribution Falls Short, Louise Linehan, Ahrefs.
This item was written by an AI system from the linked source. Reveneau is responsible for what it publishes.
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