Blackstone now expects Anthropic to receive a junk credit rating after IPO

Blackstone told investors it now expects Anthropic to receive a high junk credit rating after the AI lab goes public. The Financial Times reports the change, according to TechCrunch. Blackstone is the anchor investor in a $63 billion deal that finances Anthropic's chips. The firm warned those same investors about the forecast.

TechCrunch, citing the Financial Times, says Blackstone now expects a "double B range" rating for Anthropic. That is the top tier of speculative grade, which lenders also call junk. Earlier, Blackstone had told the same investors that Anthropic would receive an investment-grade rating before 2027. The reversal is a change in Blackstone's own prediction. The credit agencies have not yet rated Anthropic.

What Blackstone said earlier

The Financial Times had earlier reported another view from Blackstone. The firm said Anthropic would land at investment grade before the end of 2026. An investment-grade rating signals low risk to lenders. It also lets a company borrow at lower rates. Blackstone has now reversed that view in a note to investors in the chip-finance deal.

What a junk rating would cost

A high junk rating sits above most speculative grades. It makes new borrowing more expensive. It also narrows the pool of lenders that can hold the debt. For Anthropic, that matters because the company has signed large compute agreements that run to 2036. The S-1 filing this week lists commitments of $114 billion with Google and $110 billion with Amazon Web Services. It also lists $161 billion with Broadcom and $120 billion with SpaceX.

TechCrunch reached out to Anthropic and Blackstone. Both declined to comment.

What has changed in a week

Anthropic filed its S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this week. The filing shows $16 billion in first-half 2026 revenue. Five customers are about 25 percent of revenue. The filing warns that growth "may not be sustainable". The Wall Street Journal reported an $80 billion first-half loss. Almost all of that is a non-cash charge on convertible debt. The junk-rating forecast lands into that same picture.

For a team that pays Anthropic for Claude, Blackstone's note is a private prediction. It does not change today's prices. But Anthropic's cost of capital shapes what the company can discount. It also shapes what the company must charge to cover compute. A higher cost of borrowing narrows that room.

Buyers negotiating a 2027 Claude contract this quarter now have three facts on the public record. One is the S-1's 2.08 to 1 revenue-to-compute ratio. Another is the $63 billion chip-finance deal that depends on Anthropic's rating. The third is Blackstone's reversal on where that rating lands. Chinese open-weights models at lower prices sit on the next slide of any procurement pitch.

A credit rating from the agencies themselves is not yet public. Blackstone's forecast is the signal to watch now. The actual rating comes after the IPO prices.

Source

TechCrunch, citing the Financial Times (subscription required). Hacker News thread: item 50311311.