UK's £400bn AI figure came from a Google-commissioned report, Wired finds

WIRED has a story worth reading for anyone who cites numbers about AI's economic impact. Ben Gartside reports that the UK government has used a £400 billion AI-benefit estimate for two years. That figure came from a 2023 report commissioned by Google. The UK AI minister told Parliament last week that the government's own estimate is about one-third of that.

The two figures

WIRED quotes the written parliamentary answer from UK AI minister Kanishka Narayan. He said AI adoption and data investment could add £55 billion to £140 billion to the UK economy by 2030. The central figure is £120 billion. Narayan called the number a "hugely uncertain" estimate.

He also told Parliament where the £400 billion came from. WIRED quotes the answer. The figure was "drawn from a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google". The report was produced by Public First, a UK consultancy. Public First is now called PF Global.

How long the old figure was used

WIRED reports that two UK governments used the Google-commissioned figure for almost two years. Ministers had the lower estimate since at least November 2025. Skills England, a government agency, was still publishing the £400 billion figure four months after ministers had the lower one.

WIRED says Narayan's parliamentary answer is the first recorded case of a minister setting the two figures side by side. The answer did not say the £400 billion figure had been wrong.

What the consultancy says

WIRED asked PF Global's head of economics, Jonathan Dupont, about the gap. His reply, quoted in the piece, is that AI adoption has been slower than they forecast in 2023. He said their current central estimate for 2030 is now closer to the government's number. He said they still believe the long-term potential is the same.

Named reactions

WIRED quotes three people reacting on the record.

Dame Chi Onwurah is a Labour MP. She chairs the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee. She told WIRED that "overstating the benefits of technology risks undermining the case for change". She said the government needs to be "realistic" with the public.

Lord Holmes of Richmond is a Conservative peer. He first asked ministers about the £400 billion figure in January 2025. He told WIRED it was "unfortunate" that the figure had been used so widely. Many other bodies then cited it. The figure, he said, has now been "significantly and rightly adjusted".

Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute told WIRED that this "reflects a wider pattern". She said figures about AI "that look precise often have assumptions and incentives built into them". She added that "industry often funds or shapes the research behind them".

What a buyer of AI work can take from it

A big economic claim about AI is often sourced to one report. Open the report before citing it. The useful questions, as Deshmukh put the test to WIRED: where did the number come from, what does it assume, and who benefits from it.

A vendor-paid study is not the same as independent research. It can still be right. But it needs a public method and a stated set of assumptions. It needs a way to check the figure against the thing it tries to measure.

Source

UK Officials Said AI Would Add £400 Billion to the Economy. That Figure Mainly Came From Google, Ben Gartside, WIRED.